%0 Journal Article
%@ 2291-5222
%I JMIR Publications
%V 8
%N 10
%P e20741
%T COVID-19 Contact Tracing Apps: Predicted Uptake in the Netherlands Based on a Discrete Choice Experiment
%A Jonker,Marcel
%A de Bekker-Grob,Esther
%A Veldwijk,Jorien
%A Goossens,Lucas
%A Bour,Sterre
%A Rutten-Van Mölken,Maureen
%+ Erasmus School of Health Policy & Management, Erasmus University Rotterdam, , Rotterdam, Netherlands, 31 10 408 8555, marcel@mfjonker.com
%K COVID-19
%K discrete choice experiment
%K contact tracing
%K participatory epidemiology
%K participatory surveillance
%K app
%K uptake
%K prediction
%K smartphone
%K transmission
%K privacy
%K mobile phone
%D 2020
%7 9.10.2020
%9 Original Paper
%J JMIR Mhealth Uhealth
%G English
%X Background: Smartphone-based contact tracing apps can contribute to reducing COVID-19 transmission rates and thereby support countries emerging from lockdowns as restrictions are gradually eased. Objective: The primary objective of our study is to determine the potential uptake of a contact tracing app in the Dutch population, depending on the characteristics of the app. Methods: A discrete choice experiment was conducted in a nationally representative sample of 900 Dutch respondents. Simulated maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate population average and individual-level preferences using a mixed logit model specification. Individual-level uptake probabilities were calculated based on the individual-level preference estimates and subsequently aggregated into the sample as well as subgroup-specific contact tracing app adoption rates. Results: The predicted app adoption rates ranged from 59.3% to 65.7% for the worst and best possible contact tracing app, respectively. The most realistic contact tracing app had a predicted adoption of 64.1%. The predicted adoption rates strongly varied by age group. For example, the adoption rates of the most realistic app ranged from 45.6% to 79.4% for people in the oldest and youngest age groups (ie, ≥75 years vs 15-34 years), respectively. Educational attainment, the presence of serious underlying health conditions, and the respondents’ stance on COVID-19 infection risks were also correlated with the predicted adoption rates but to a lesser extent. Conclusions: A secure and privacy-respecting contact tracing app with the most realistic characteristics can obtain an adoption rate as high as 64% in the Netherlands. This exceeds the target uptake of 60% that has been formulated by the Dutch government. The main challenge will be to increase the uptake among older adults, who are least inclined to install and use a COVID-19 contact tracing app. 
%M 32795998
%R 10.2196/20741
%U https://mhealth.jmir.org/2020/10/e20741
%U https://doi.org/10.2196/20741
%U http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32795998